Ethiopian Stock Market - Prediction

There is significant excitement surrounding the launch of Ethiopia's new stock market. However, I approach this development with skepticism due to key challenges such as limited financial literacy, underdeveloped financial infrastructure, economic instability, low levels of public trust in government, and the society's limited disposable income.

I anticipate that less than 1% of the population will actively participate in the market. Among them, only 1-2% are likely to be insiders or individuals with privileged access to insider information. The remaining 98-99% will consist of uninformed or naive investors buying shares with expected high potential returns. Given the current gaps in the regulatory framework and a lack of transparency, these 98-99% are poised to bear the brunt of potential losses, effectively becoming the casualties of the system. This will be a wealth transfer from wealthy people to the political and financial elite! There will definitely be companies with fair valuation and growth, but that will be a rarity!!!