Likelihood of Overseas Transfer

Hey there, I met someone in the Air Force that told me after a year, you can put in for transfers overseas to open positions. But what is the likelihood of actually getting transferred, even more so to where you want to be? I was in Japan for 3 years and lived in Fussa (by Yokota Airbase in Japan) and would like to possibly move back with the military. Korea is another one I'd be interested in.

Is the likelihood somewhere between none and zilch, is it just idk....10-40% chance, or can it be higher than that? I'd try to go in as an officer (if available) since I have a degree (BS in Business, graduated summa cum laude). I'm 35 years old and have the JLPT N4 (Japanese language cert), and am right by the Air Force Academy in Colorado, if that makes any difference