Automaker stocks could be hit incredibly hard this week if the tariffs actually go through

I saw this article on Bloomberg about it: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-02/car-prices-face-3-000-increase-as-trump-tariffs-hit-auto-sector

President Donald Trump’s tariffs against Canada and Mexico will threaten production at automakers across North America and send record vehicle prices even higher, with about a quarter of a trillion dollars in trade set to be disrupted.

Trump on Saturday followed through on his warning to impose 25% tariffs on imports from the two countries, blaming the flow of migrants and drugs over the US borders — as well as large trade deficits — for the move. Barring a surprise, the tariffs are set to take effect at 12:01 a.m. on Tuesday, giving manufacturers less than 48 hours to figure out what to do.

“The auto sector is going to shut down within a week,” said Flavio Volpe, president of Canada’s Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association. “At 25%, absolutely nobody in our business is profitable by a long shot.”

The duties would immediately hit almost one quarter of the 16 million vehicles that are sold in the US each year, as well as the parts and components that go into them — an import market that totaled $225 billion in 2024, according to research from automotive consultant AlixPartners. Tariffs will add $60 billion in costs to the industry, the research shows, much of which is likely to be passed on to consumers.

Automakers in Mexico have been preparing by preemptively importing both more components and vehicles, which may ease the blow in the first few weeks, said Guillermo Rosales, president of the Mexican Association of Automotive Distributors, or AMDA. After that, the outlook is less certain. “Everything depends on the course that the Trump administration takes in this matter,” he said.

Car components can make their way back and forth across US borders as many as eight times during production, heaping duties onto a sprawling industry that relies on materials from all three countries. At the consumer end of the supply chain, the average price of a new car may climb by about $3,000, Wolfe Research analysts have said, further straining affordability with prices already close to all-time highs.

“It is going to be a lot of impact,” Aruna Anand, chief executive officer of parts supplier Continental AG’s North American business, said in an interview. “The question is who is absorbing the price and it becomes, are we able to absorb that price or is it going to be shifted to the end consumer?”

Do we think these tariffs will actually go through? This seems like a disaster waiting to happen

Which automakers are the most exposed to this? I feel like $GM would be the major one since they do a lot of cross-border movements throughout the building of many vehicles

Edit: i found this useful graph showing the percentage each automaker sources parts from Canada and Mexico: https://imgur.com/A37WOPz

It seems like Nissan, VW, and Mazda source the highest percentage of components from Canada and Mexico, with GM being around 40% but they have the highest production volume

But this doesn't really tell us how many times these vehicles are crossing the border during production, which will also have a tariff impact